In the next few decades, the world will change beyond recognition. And it will be ruled not by the one who has a lot of dollars, oil or gas, but by the one who knows how to produce biorobots or prolong life.

The reality around us will change radically in the next few decades. Without catching the "innovative wave", Russia will fall out of the ranks of world leaders for a long time, if not forever.

So, Anatoly Chubais recently informed the Russian public about the transition to the sixth technological mode - although in "narrow circles" they started talking about this back in the early 2000s.

Recall that the fifth order, the formation of which began in the mid-1980s, is silicon microelectronics, computer science, biotech, and genetic engineering. At the same time, the technological "wave" was rather weak - the scale of changes was radically inferior to the previous "peaks". Compare, for example, the thirty years between 1930 and 1960, and the same period between 1980 and 2010. In the first case in 30 years, nuclear weapons, atomic energy, the first computers and lasers (as well as a host of less conspicuous innovations) appeared, spacewalks were made, jet aircraft became widespread ...

There was no such tremendous progress between 1980 and 2010. That is why Russia/USSR, which almost missed the fifth technological order, did not fly out of the clip of world powers. The upcoming technological leap already at the start looks much more impressive, and therefore it will be deadly to miss it.

Let's look at the main directions of the sixth order.

First of all, this is the emergence of fundamentally new materials. For example, graphene, carbon and non-carbon nanotubes and composites based on them. The properties of next-generation materials are truly impressive. Say, "paper" made of many layers of graphene is twice as hard and ten times stronger in tension than steel. Self-healing materials will also spread - for example, getting rid of cracks when irradiated with ultraviolet radiation. A more active use of materials will begin, the density of which is comparable to the density of air or even less with quite decent mechanical characteristics - these are not only relatively traditional aerogels, but also “designs” (you can’t pick another word) on a metal basis.

In an area that boomed during the previous technological leap - electronics - a revolution is inevitable. Silicon technology has already approached its theoretical limit, and Moore's law, along with the silicone-based megahertz race, will inevitably sink into oblivion. However, silicon has an alternative - first of all, optical processors (more precisely, "hybrid" optoelectronic devices).

Robotics related to electronics/optoelectronics is also undergoing a period of extremely rapid progress. Although full-fledged artificial intelligence will remain an unattainable dream for the foreseeable future, robotic systems are getting smarter fast enough to be widely used. So, in the military field, experiments on the creation of UAVs with a high degree autonomy has already gone far enough. Another delayed effect of the electronic boom is the appearance of more or less practical walking mechanisms, indispensable where hypertrophied patency is required. In the "mechanical" part, extremely rapid progress in the field of creating exoskeletons, which have already moved from the pages of science fiction to harsh reality. And the emergence of new materials opens up non-trivial possibilities here too (with the help of nanotube fibers, among other things, it is possible to create artificial muscles with an impressive “power density”).

Communication with wiser optoelectronic counterparts promises to become much denser due to rapid progress in brain research and technologies for reading its activity. First of all, this allows you to create fundamentally new “machine-brain” interfaces. Computer games and non-computer toys with elementary “brain” control are already a reality, and cars with “mental” control are being tested. Similar technologies will lead to significant advances in the field of prosthetics. By the way, this may turn out to be useful for quite healthy people - as experiments show, the exceptionally high adaptability of the human brain allows you to control additional mechanical hands instead of the usual two.

Electronics in the field of robotics is gradually crossed with biotechnology. "Animats" are already moving around the laboratories - robots with a brain based on living neurons, for example, rat ones (even at the beginning of the "zero" set of these neurons quite tolerably controlled the flight on the Raptor computer simulator). In fact, we are witnessing "cyborgization", which is developing in two directions - both along the path of partial "mechanization" of Homo sapiens, and along the path of creating "animats".

The reverse side of this process is the expansion of the ability to control biological objects - from remotely controlled beetles acting as microdrones to US infantrymen. Last but not least, the ubiquitous DARPA promises helmets with ultrasonic transcranial stimulation devices that allow you to arbitrarily activate the desired parts of the brain, suppressing fear, pain, the desire to take a nap on duty, or, conversely, hypervigilance syndrome. The possibilities of “chemical” manipulations with the brain are also expanding (neuropharmacology is rapidly progressing).

In the field of biotechnology itself, progress is also very fast. Thus, a transition has already been made from traditional genetic modifications to the creation of organisms with a completely artificial genome (the first such bacterium already lives in laboratory Petri dishes). Semi-synthetic chromosomes are introduced into the cells of more complex, eukaryotic organisms - yeast. Advances in genome sequencing make it possible to move on to more “individualized” medicine and “preventive” treatment of genetically determined diseases. Growing new organs from patient cells is also an area of ​​active development. In reality, artificially grown heart, liver, teeth, brain tissues, etc. already exist. Promising donors may be "chimeric" organisms. Another application of the same technology is test-tube meat (the first sample of "artificial" pork was obtained in 2009).

In a sense, regenerative medicine competes with organ growing - stem cell injections, for example, are used to repair the cornea. The expectations of SENS participants (the Cambridge project "Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence"), promising that in 20 years people will stop dying of natural death thanks to a set of new biotechnologies, look clearly overstated, but a noticeable extension of life can become a reality in quite a few years. foreseeable future.

Not far off is the revolution in "aerospace". Now hypersonic technologies are developing quite rapidly - for example, hypersonic ramjet engines (scramjet engines) capable of accelerating a flying car to 17 speeds of sound are demonstrating significant success. Among other things, they can radically facilitate the conclusion payload into space, lifting it and dispersing it to 2/3 of the first space velocity in a much more economical mode than traditional chemical rocket engines. Of the "extraatmospheric" technologies, one can note the rapid progress in the field of electric rocket (plasma and ion) engines. Space nuclear technologies that have been “hung” for several decades are also being revived. Laser rocket engines (with remote energy supply) are no longer purely theoretical designs.

Powerful lasers over the past couple of decades have gone from monstrous “devices” using aggressive and expensive chemicals to an order of magnitude more compact and easy-to-use “tools”. A related direction is microwave emitters. Both microwaves and lasers have long been used in industry and communications, and will be used even more actively in the future. Wireless power transmission based on laser or microwave technologies is also moving into practice. In addition, laser thermonuclear fusion is one of the most promising ways to a full-fledged fusion.

Finally, which is important for Russia, the traditional carbon energy within the framework of the sixth order will noticeably lose ground. There will be an increase in the share of atomic energy - primarily due to "brought to mind" fast neutron reactors. Alternative energy will also increase its share - for example, until recently, the efficiency of solar batteries did not reach 10%, and now batteries with an efficiency close to 40% are already appearing on the market. At the same time, the future of solar energy demonstrates a bizarre "syncretism" of several technological directions at once - in particular, successful experiments are being carried out to create "nanostructured" batteries using genetically programmed viruses.

Energy storage capabilities will also expand - for now we are talking, first of all, about hydrogen energy and lithium-ion batteries, the capacity of which is growing very rapidly (new technologies open up the possibility of an approximately tenfold increase in capacity). In the future, they may be replaced by batteries on a different basis - for example, very unconventional magnesium-sulphur or lithium-sulphur batteries.

The possibilities of energy transfer will also increase. For example, electrical cables made of carbon nanotubes are comparable in strength to metal wire, but six times lighter. In terms of specific conductivity, nanotube conductors are far ahead of copper and silver.

In general, in the coming decades, with the transition to the sixth technological order, the world will change in much the same way as it changed between 1940 and 1970. In Russia, the share of technologies of the fifth order is approximately 10% (in the West 30-40%), the fourth - 50%, the third - 30%.

Technological order is one of the terms of the theory of scientific and technological progress (STP).

The world owes the appearance of this concept to the scientist-economist Nikolai Kondratiev. He held a responsible post in the Provisional Government of Kerensky, and then headed the famous Moscow Market Institute. Studying the history of capitalism, Kondratiev came to the idea of ​​the existence of large - lasting 50-55 years - economic cycles, which are characterized by a certain level of development of productive forces ("technological order, cycle"). The beginning of each cycle is characterized by the rise of the economy, while the end is characterized by crises, followed by the transition of the productive forces to a higher level of development.

Based on this and other theories, Russian economists developed the concept of technological modes. In the early 1990s, Dmitry Lvov and Sergei Glazyev proposed the concept of "technological mode" as a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of production development, and identified five already implemented modes. Each such cycle begins when a new set of innovations is available to producers. The foundations of the subsequent technological order are born, as a rule, even during the heyday of the previous, and sometimes the previous previous order.

The criterion for attributing production to a certain technological mode is the use in this production of technologies inherent in this mode, or technologies that ensure the production of products that, in terms of their technical or physical and chemical characteristics, can correspond to the products of this mode.

First technological order(1770-1830) - The first industrial revolution. It was based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy, which led to the mechanization of labor and the beginning of mass production.
Leading countries: Great Britain, France, Belgium.

The second technological order(1830-1880) is also called the "Age of Steam".
It was characterized by the accelerated development of rail and water transport based on steam engines, widespread introduction steam engines into industrial production.
Leading countries: Great Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, USA.

Third technological order(1880-1930) was called the "Age of Steel" (Second Industrial Revolution).
Based on industrial use electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel. Many discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication and telegraph were introduced. Automobile. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital.
Leading countries: Germany, USA, Great Britain, France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands.

Fourth technological order(1930-1970), the so-called "Age of Oil".
It is characterized by the further development of energy with the use of oil and oil products, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. The widespread use of computers and software products. The use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technologies are becoming the basis of mass production. Formation of transnational and international companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.
Leading countries: USA, Western Europe, USSR.

Fifth technological order(1970-2010). - technologies used in the microelectronic industry, computing, fiber-optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, rendering information services; production based on the use of biotechnology, space technology, chemistry of new materials with desired properties.

There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.

Today the world is on the threshold of the sixth technological mode. Its outlines are just beginning to take shape. developed countries ah world.

Sixth technological order- these are nanotechnologies (nanoelectronics, molecular and nanophotonics, nanomaterials and nanostructured coatings, optical nanomaterials, nanoheterogeneous systems, nanobiotechnologies, nanosystem technology, nanoequipment), cellular technologies, technologies used in genetic engineering, hydrogen energy and controlled thermonuclear reactions, as well as to create artificial intelligence and global information networks - the synthesis of achievements in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and, ultimately, provide access to a fundamentally new level in the systems of government, society, and the economy.

Forecasters believe that while maintaining the current pace of technical economic development, the sixth technological mode in the developed countries of the world will actually come in 2014 (!) - 2018, and will enter the phase of maturity in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025, a new scientific, technical and technological revolution will take place, the basis of which will be developments that synthesize the achievements of the above-mentioned basic areas. There are grounds for such predictions. In 2010, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological order in the most developed countries averaged 60%, the fourth - 20%, and the sixth - about 5%. Obviously, the ratio of the share of technological modes in the country's economy as a whole determines the degree of its development, internal and external stability. Unfortunately, the initiative in the implementation of the Sixth Order was unequivocally seized by the United States. Individual leading works in the countries of the post-Soviet space cannot compete with this array.

For reflection:
The opinion of Vladimir Lepsky, chief researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences, president of the Innovative Development Club, is interesting, who believes: “If you cannot catch up, you must get ahead ...”. He expressed the idea of ​​moving to the Seventh technological order: “The sixth order implies the production of technologies, and the Seventh should be understood as the production of people capable of creating technologies, organizing living conditions and forms of consciousness.”

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From the 6th technological order - to the unknown space 7th

We live in the times of the 5th technological mode, which, thanks to the successful inflating of the financial bubble in the 70s, did not completely replace the 4th mode, but superimposed on it. Therefore, according to some economic theories, the 4th and 5th modes are a single whole. However, we cannot ignore their significant differences, both economic: after all, in the 70s there was a noticeable economic decline, which was replaced by a new upsurge - and technological.

Recall, by the way, that the technological order includes by no means those technologies that present moment invented or tested in practice - the logic of scientific research and inventions is not subject to economics! No, the way is determined by those inventions that are included in everyday life societies and became the foundation of the economy, forming powerful basic technological chains. So, we see technologies of the 4th mode everywhere around us: thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants, thermal neutron nuclear power plants, engines internal combustion, vehicles and jet aircraft, chemical rockets, prefabricated houses, radio, television and much more. We see around us the technologies of the 5th order: microcircuits, personal computers, solar energy, mobile communication, satellites for communication, navigation and cartography, light space probes on ion engines, lasers, computer networks, industrial robots and much more.

But the technologies of the 6th order exist by no means only in the imagination of science fiction writers - most of these technologies are already available. It's just that they are not introduced into the economy, do not form its basis, and therefore do not catch the eye. But we can, seeing the ways of developing technologies, try to predict which of them will soon become vital to humanity and therefore will inevitably form the basis of the 6th order.

Many futurologists, speaking of the 6th techno-structure, mention the tetrad “bio, nano, info, cogno”. But this tetrad, although it sounds beautiful, consists of very heterogeneous elements. Biotechnologies are developing very intensively - it is not for nothing that they say that the 21st century will be the “century of biology”. Advances in biophysics and genetics make it possible to manipulate living organisms at the molecular and atomic level, which opens up truly immense possibilities for us. In fact, changing the genome is what nanotechnologies are, that is, technologies for changing substances on the scale of atoms and molecules. Indeed, DNA has nanoscale, and genetic technologies are engaged in its direct change. It is in biology that real, and not declared, nanotechnologies are very promising. The practical applications of the latest biotechnologies are also obvious: nanomedicine, heredity management, Agriculture(where the problem of hunger, as we found out, is very acute!), as well as closed life support systems for the colonization of other planets. These closed coolants can be worked out in new high-tech cities - ecopolises, as well as in high-tech villages - ecovillages.

Where else are nanotechnologies promising? First of all, when developing new materials: stronger, more flexible, more durable. New materials will improve the efficiency of almost all existing technologies, as well as create new ones: for example, heavy-duty single-stage, and therefore reusable rockets or space elevators. This will significantly reduce the cost of putting cargo into orbit.
Consider now information technology. This term has two meanings. First, the production, storage and processing of information, that is, programming. Secondly, the production of "iron" for information processing.

Programming is a very specific technology. In fact, the program is an extension of the human mind, because, as we have already said, the mind is the ability to process information as matter. But is man ready for unlimited expansion of his mind? In this way, with this biological, cultural and religious base - obviously not. All the predictions of "transhumanists" that a person is about to become super-strong and super-intelligent are overly optimistic. Perhaps he will become super-strong (more on this below), but why would he become super-smart? If we take the average uncle Vasya from the next entrance, then nothing in his upbringing or life experience set such goals for him. And the intellectual elite does not need excessive intelligence either - it is already an elite. For the same reason, global research in the field of "artificial intelligence", even if they can lead to serious results in expanding the human mind (which, generally speaking, is not true due to problems with the element base, see below), is unlikely to be in demand.

What remains is the development of material information technologies. The explosive growth of these technologies was a sign of the 5th order - but Moore's law, according to which the power of processors doubles every 2 years, cannot last forever. The law will cease to work even not when the size of the elements of electronic circuits becomes comparable to the size of an atom, but even earlier - due to an increase in entropy, which means overheating of any information processing devices. According to forecasts, this will happen as early as 2026, so the miniaturization of information technology will be limited.
What's next? Development of means of communication? But mobile satellite communication in this sense is an ideal, nothing new can be invented. Further - only a change in the element base. Apparently, the era of universal personal computers is coming to an end and the era of specialized solutions is coming. Smart and radiation-resistant space probes will crawl all over the planets of the solar system, helping people. “Smart houses” are already being created with “smart” walls, doors, windows, batteries, stoves and refrigerators, with computers stitched everywhere, skillfully regulating the living environment for their residents. "Smart houses" are most effective in "smart cities" - futuropolices, in which new technologies are most actively introduced. Ecopolises are a special case of futuropolices.

And microchips will be sewn into the residents themselves, and devices will be hung on them to expand their capabilities. So there will be cyborgs - hybrids of man and machine. They will be stronger, faster, more agile than ordinary people. They will be able to control machines with a single glance or even an effort of thought. Of course, machines sewn into a protein organism are more efficient and safer when they themselves have a protein base. Biocomputers can replace "iron" machines in many areas. Apparently, the principles of warfare will seriously change. At the first stage, remote-controlled robots will fight among themselves, and at the second, armies of cyborgs will go into battle to establish complete control over the territory.
The last component of the triad remains - "cogno-", cognitive technologies. But the psychological technologies of cognition, this "programming without computers" has always been developing - just remember yoga, Sufi practices and the system of science that has existed from the Middle Ages to the present day. In our time, programming on computers has only been added to it, that's all.

But that feature of the 6th technological order, about which most futurologists forgot to mention - a sharp change in the structure of energy. The era of cheap hydrocarbons is coming to an end. The era of expensive energy is coming. First of all, it will be nuclear energy - before the creation of workable thermonuclear reactors, there are still 50 years. But revolutionary changes are possible in nuclear energy associated with more compact and powerful fast neutron reactors. Yes, they are more dangerous than ordinary ones - but computerization and remote control will reduce the danger to a minimum - computers are more reliable than people. BN reactors will make it possible to create a network of small nuclear power plants for the development of the Arctic and Antarctic. Nuclear trains and nuclear floating cities will appear, and spaceships powered by nuclear engines or ion engines with nuclear reactors will fly to the Moon, Mars and Venus. In addition, BN reactors will make it possible to implement a closed nuclear fuel cycle, minimizing nuclear waste.

Other types of alternative energy will also develop rapidly. Solar and wind energy, although they are inefficient, will fill all the niches available to them on Earth and in space (in space, the niche of solar batteries is from Mercury to asteroids). Their low power and dependence on the weather will be compensated by connecting to computerized networks, allowing you to quickly transfer energy from one area to another. Solar batteries, windmills, small nuclear power plants and small hydroelectric power plants will be connected to these networks, reducing the burden on the environment to a minimum.

So, as we can see, the technologies of the 6th order almost do not include space technologies. On the 6th mode, astronautics will not yet become driving force economy. At the same time, almost all the technologies of the 6th stage that we have listed (even genetic engineering for long-distance flights) accelerate the development of astronautics. This means that in the 6th technological mode, funding for astronautics should only grow - the development of new technologies associated with this will pay off many times over. Most likely, this will continue to be done primarily by states, although the niche of space businessmen in Earth orbit and on the Moon will expand.

What will be the technologies of the 7th order, which will come around in the second half of the 21st century? Have mercy, no one can know this until even the 6th way has come! But from the most general considerations, it is clear that thermonuclear energy will appear in the 7th mode, and the total energy consumption of mankind will increase dramatically. This is where astronautics will become necessary: ​​the extraction of helium-3 on the Moon and Uranus, and orbital solar power plants, and the transfer of too energy-intensive industry into space. And if before that, in half a century of domination of the 6th order, humanity does not develop space technologies, it will begin to have serious problems.

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No one has yet moved to the sixth technological order. It is currently in the development stage. The sixth technological order implies absolute customization of production. In general, the concept and ideology of the sixth technological order appeared in Germany. Conventionally, when buying a Japanese car, there is a choice of four basic trim levels and the possibilities for individual customization are minimal. And, for example, a German car has much higher customization. As a result, it will always be more expensive. Therefore, for the Germans, Industry 4.0 is a story about how, by deepening the personalization of the services provided and the products sold, to remain price competitive, with fixed configurations and mass production, that is, to do it just as cheaply.
What will car repair look like in the future? Suppose a car has a broken wing, the owner goes to service center, which has a 3D printer and access to the corresponding 3D models of individual parts, and the new wing is printed on the spot. Delivery, intermediaries are leaving, the time and cost of the final service are being reduced. Over time, the car will be sold not as a product, but as a service.
Or take pharmaceuticals. Today it is a story about the production of a chemical substance in large factories, from which mass medicines are then obtained. In the near future, drugs will be grown in biofactories and sharpened for specific viruses and diseases. At the next stage of development, the patient will come to the hospital, take tests and, right on the spot, an individual drug will be prepared for him. Pharmaceuticals will go from being a drug industry to a service, as it is the service that will be sold. This will be Industry 4.0. And robots are only part of this overall picture.
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"The Fourth Great Industrial Revolution"

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a direct line with the people, spoke out that Russia needs to develop a "digital economy" - and, judging by the hype that immediately began around this phrase, it " digital economy” may well claim the status of another national idea. The economic observer of "BUSINESS Online" Alexander Vinogradov deals with the issue of technological revolutions and the "Solow paradox".

IT SEEMS THAT YOU SHOULD STRETCH YOUR HAND AND THE FUTURE WILL COME

Sometimes the story itself leads to a certain topic.

Six months ago, I spoke on the radio, where, together with a presenter and a colleague from one of the committees of the Federation Council, I discussed the transformation of the economy and, in particular, the sharp growth of various types of businesses based on the uber model (the so-called “uberization of the economy”). A month ago, I privately wrote a short review of a certain text devoted to aspects of the economy, which could, let's say, become the basis of the world's victorious fourth industrial revolution (hereinafter - the 4th IR). The ideas expressed in it were rather curious, but they obviously relied on the axiomatics of the 4th PR, and if you remove it, these ideas hung in the air, as was indicated. Finally, two weeks ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a direct line with the people, spoke out that Russia needs to develop a “digital economy” - and, judging by the immediate hype that began around this phrase, this “digital economy” may well claim the status another national idea. All this was superimposed on a rather sharp jump in the values ​​of the main cryptocurrencies, which spurred interest in the whole topic of the new industry, new money and the new economy as a whole. In general, it seems that stretch out your hand - and the future will come. Is it really? And what happens to the breakthrough into a brighter tomorrow?

It should be said right away that the vocabulary used by the apologists of the 4th PR immediately causes a certain skepticism. First, the very word "revolution" implies a rather sharp qualitative change in the situation. A sort of "wow" - and everything becomes different. This does not look like the truth, if only because the world economy is very inert. Secondly, the postulation of the 4th PR implies the presence of the 3rd, 2nd and even 1st PR, and in relation to the first two it is recognized that they lasted for decades, but in this case there can be no question of a revolution, since , due to the duration of the process, these changes are evolutionary. Thirdly, I was extremely surprised to hear about the 4th PR at all, since just recently there was a lot of noise around the 3rd. This, of course, meets the criteria of a "revolution", but what - has the future already come and the 3rd PR has fully entered into its own rights?

Everything turned out to be both simpler and more difficult at the same time. The very topic of the 3rd PR was introduced by the American economist and environmentalist Jeremy Rifkin, who published a book with the same title at the end of 2010 - although, I must say, here he is secondary to the American futurologist Alvin Toffler and his already half-forgotten book "The Third Wave" published back in 1980. Nevertheless, Rifkin's book made a splash. Rifkin was immediately accepted by Obama and was named to the US Industrialization Commission. Rifkin's work inspired Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, who ordered the book to be urgently translated into Chinese, and then a quarter of a million copies to be sent to Chinese leaders at various levels. In addition, Rifkin became an EU consultant on the Industrial Revolution. In general, the award found a hero, and quite deservedly so.

The situation changed in 2016, after on January 20, the famous Swiss economist Klaus Martin Schwab, founder and permanent president of the World Economic Forum in Davos, spoke at this very forum and proclaimed the upcoming 4th PR with no hesitation. Accordingly, Rifkin, as the ideologist of a “bright future,” had to make room on Olympus. Worse, as a result of Schwab's speech (who has more solid weight than Rifkin), the whole PR methodology (already rather dubious) "went" and had to be hastily corrected.

Thus, the following areas of development within the framework of the 3rd PR were initially assumed:

Transition to renewable energy sources;

Localization of electricity production, each building is its generator;

Total energy saving and zeroing of emissions of all types and varieties;

Electric and hydrogen transport;

Composite materials and 3D printing of anything and everything;

The arrival of a sort of "distributed capitalism" - with the reduction of intermediaries between the producer and the consumer, the mixing of these roles.

As you can see, the proposed changes are quite large; let's note it. At the same time, the 4th PR in the current edition promises us, among other things, a sharp increase in the use of "big data", the development of the "Internet of things" and augmented reality against the backdrop of the spread of a distributed registry (blockchain) and the same 3D printing, and an award in the end should be a sharp increase in labor productivity. But that's not all. The 3rd PR had to be noticeably cut in order to preserve the integrity of the view and, even more ridiculous, sent to the past: according to the most current methodology, the 3rd PR is now understood only and exclusively as the "digital revolution" - three decades of mass distribution of computers and networks .

BETWEEN INVENTION AND EVERYDAY USE IS A CHAPSEL UNDER THE NAME "INTRODUCTION"

As a matter of fact, already such a cursory digression into the history of the issue shows a fair amount of dubiousness of all these concepts. Again, this is not new: back in 1987, the famous American economist Robert Solow (Nobel Prize winner of the same year) noted that “computers are visible everywhere except in labor productivity statistics”, a statement that later became known as the “Solow paradox”. The reason for his skepticism is understandable - at least a decade and a half before his observation, spending on IT grew by 15 - 20% every year, while the annual growth in labor productivity during this period averaged 1.5 - 1.6% , which is an order of magnitude weaker.

Let us once again note this key moment. So, technology is invented, technology is introduced (that is, there is someone who pays for it!), and thus those who work in this area have money for the development and improvement of this technology, but for labor productivity in the economy in Overall, these actions have little impact. Natural questions arise: who financed this IT splendor, did he get it back and what exactly did he get in the end? The answer to this question is known: the main driver for the development of IT technologies was the financial and banking sector (very rich - on a planetary scale), which in return received the opportunity for a powerful expansion of its presence in the economy; I note that it is probably impossible to answer whether these investments paid off or not. Another thing is important - the technology has risen on the money of financiers and is firmly integrated into the world society. The whole range of other "folk" use of computers and networks - from Prince of Persia and Digger to Telegram and Youtube - is already a cherry on the cake.

Accordingly, it is precisely through this prism that various “revolutions” should be considered. We read with interest about new inventions, they appear in large numbers, but between the invention and everyday use lies the abyss called "introduction". It, in turn, is determined solely by solvent demand and nothing else - and this is where the fundamental problem lies on the path of any novelty that is part of the paradigm of the next "revolution" or not included in it. good example here is the same 3D printing. Let me remind you that the current noise (already rather subsided, I must say) around it began around 2007, exactly a decade ago. And where is the exhaust? 3D printing, as it was, has remained a purely niche toy, despite the huge initial attention. The reason is simple - there is not enough demand, as it was not in 1984, when the first 3D printer was invented.

The situation is similar with another fetish of the present time - robotization. Modern industrial robot, generally speaking, does not fundamentally differ from the digging stick of primitive times described in the history textbook. It is a tool created by man to solve his problems, and the process of creating them is continuous and iterative - old, crude tools are used to make newer and more accurate ones, and so ad infinitum. Accordingly, there can be no question of any revolution in this regard, and the question comes down to a simple one - whether the robot will pay off or not. And it’s not at all a fact that it will pay off - not only I put robots, but also my competitors, and the demand for products does not change or even falls, because the robot, for example, will allow you to fire unnecessary workers. As a result, the cost of labor decreases, and the robot may already be uncompetitive. Let me remind you that about a quarter of the world's textiles are produced in Bangladesh using a half-century-old technology referred to as "woman + sewing machine." Robots in this area simply have nothing to do, the available human labor is so cheap.

Exactly the same situation with "big data". I remember very well the buzz around IT in the 90s and the absolutely insane bubble in this market (P/E for Yahoo shares over 1200!), which ended in a crash. Then came the fashion for cloud computing and thin clients, now (more precisely, for four years already) it is big data as a range of technologies for working with huge data arrays. No, of course, there is interest, there are venture investors (hoping to hit the jackpot), and one can only rejoice for those who work in this area, as well as for those who are now actively digging for the latest IT squeak, namely, neural networks . But the question of demand was and remains relevant for these areas of activity, and, say, it may well turn out that the software and hardware complex of an unmanned vehicle, consisting of a trained neural network as software and a processor and a set of lidars as AO, will still be more expensive than a human driver .

THE ESSENCE HERE IS EXCLUSIVELY IN PSYCHOLOGY

There is, however, one thing that can really take off, takes off and has already taken off in this entire spectrum of “new technologies”. These are p2p services. Uber-like services in taxis, Blablacar in intercity travel, Booking.com in travel, even peer-to-peer lending platforms, especially in collaboration with the traditional banking sector, which, say, provides customers who fail the bank's own scoring procedures. Here we can also note the business model of TKS Bank with its rejection of the usual format of branches, that is, savings on them. The general meaning here is that the savings go to the destruction of the usual intermediaries (who quit and enter the labor market, pushing it down), they are replaced by one or another IT platform built on the basis of an already created and extremely inexpensive IT infrastructure to use. But for a whole industrial revolution it doesn't pull at all.

The point here, in fact, is exclusively in psychology. Let me remind you that in less than two months the current global depression will be 10 years old. Yes, exactly in August 2007, the first funds from those who were engaged in investments in subprime mortgages “went” to the USA. Ten years. It is, generally speaking, hard to live in conditions of pale anemic growth, and even against the backdrop of growing debts. Accordingly, in society there is an unformulated request for a miracle, for a magic wand, which, being caught by a specially trained cat, will make the very “wow” - and a bright future will come abruptly.

Unfortunately, it is not. Technologies will continue to be invented, the most cost-effective ones will be introduced, the picture of the world will slowly change. But breakthroughs are not to be expected. In 1985, a famous movie envisioned flying cars three decades later as the norm. Alas. Didn't take off.

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